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Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh*****
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After
a two week hiatus, The Swammi is back to bring you his predictions
for weeks 7 & 8 and the important keys to the games. After
going an embarrassing 3-6 in theng week, The Swam promises
to make this comeback more productive on the prognostication side.
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Kordell Stewart us 5th in the PFL in rushing.
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The
PFL.com Showcase Game Of The Week, feature the two premiere runners
in THE LEAGUE. Tyrell Conyers just hit the 1000 yard mark with
Jerome Bettis who has been unconscious in each of his games. Conyers
is averaging 176 ppg with Bettis, who has 1056 yards and a staggering
6.6 yards per carry. To make matters worse, Bettis is ranked #1
in the league rushing and not for behind him is Kordell Stewart
who ranked 5th just behind the Vikings Michael Bennet.
Brooks
will have his hands full containing the Steelers running attack.
What is so impressive about Conyers is his ability to make plays
in the passing game when he needs to.
Conyers
had made it no secret that he wants Brooks 1500 yard rushing record,
so look for him to run the football heavily early to test the
Vikings run defense. Brooks must be able to get into the chess
match with Conyers, recognizing when he wants to throw, and when
he wants to run.
The
key here for the Vikes may be stopping the Steeler on first down.
Conyers has been successful setting up easy conversion opportunities
for the offense using 2nd or 3rd and shorts to either run or pass.
Brooks will have to force the Steelers to throw the football and
I just don't see that happening.
The
Steelers however, should be prepared for a more explosive Brooks
this week. Brooks aired it out against Dallas, shellacking the
Cowboys deep with Randy Moss. While Conyers has great one on one
coverage skills in the secondary, expect Brooks to test him deep
with the TE on the corner route. I expect Conyers to play this
well since he runs a similar scheme in his offensive attack also.
I think the Vikings defense will contain Bettis but not shut him
down.. So I'll I take the Steelers here by 4 1/2.
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Baltimore vs. NY Jets***
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Despite Baltimore sitting at a
disappointing 2-4, Rod Lucas should not look past Ed Hayward's
Ravens squad. Hayward has been in each of his contest, with the
exception being the pasting he took at the hands of Dell Barton
in week 1.
Both of the guys love to run it,
so look for this to be a battle of the run defenses. Curtis Martin
is #2 in the PFL in rushing, followed Jamaal Lewis of the Ravens
at #3. However, I think the advantage goes to Lucas as the better
run stopper. He held the dominant Steeler running game to just
under 70 yards, something no one else in THE LEAGUE has been able
to do thus far.
Hayward will have to stick with
his game plan however. He should expect Lucas to play the run,
but the Ravens cant afford to abandon the run game if they are
not successful early. That is when Hayward usually runs into to
problems. If Hayward gets into a passing fancy vs. Lucas, look
for the Jets to tee-off on Randall Cunningham.
Hayward should expect to get a
hefty dose of Curtis Martin on the outside. If the Ravens can
get the run pursuit to seal off the outside corners and force
Martin to cut back, they have a chance to force the Jets into
long yardage situations. Lucas knows has excellent conversion
plays to throw at Hayward, so it will be up to him (Hayward) to
make his adjustments in the passing game, to contain the Jets.
I like Rod in this one simply
because I think the Jets defense has the advantage over the Ravens
offense. So with that said, I'll take the Jets by 5.
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Denver v. Chicago***
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Steve Stewart's Bears roll into
Denver to take on Tony Gray and the Broncos. T. Gray is playing
well, but not bringing home the W's. In the three losses he has
suffered, two of them were close scores, with the exception being
the Bronco-Steeler game. And even vs. the Steelers, Gray had the
Broncos in the game for the most part until the end.
This week, Gray will need to find
a way to stay in the game vs. the explosive Stewart. The Bears
have a TNT combination of Marcus Robinson and David Terrell. Between
the two of them, they are averaging 6-8 catches per game each,
and over 150 yards receiving each. These kind of numbers mean
one thing: BIG PLAYS
Tony Gray will need to contain
the big plays defensively that Stewart loves to get off on. While
Stewart is not much of a runner, he could very well be licking
his chops after watching Tyrell roll for 271 rushing yards against
the Broncs two weeks ago. Stewart likes to go to James Allen out
of the backfield in the passing game, but at times he will run
it, mixing in the A-Train, Anthony Thomas as well. If the Brocos
dont prove they can seal off the corners early...it could get
ugly real fast.
The Bears defense has not been
as impressive as the offense. While the offense is scoring an
impressive 38 PPG, the defense is giving up a whopping 33 PPG.
Stewarts unstated motto has been, we don't care how many points
the other team scores.....we will score more. And that of course
is the name of this game.
I look for this to be the case
in this matchup. Lots of points scored, but the Bears make most
of the big plays. Gray should come on later in the season, but
right now, it is too early for him to handle this Bears offense.
I'll take the Bears by 8
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Jacksonville v. NY Giants***
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The jury is still out on rookie
Leonard Pressley. Although he is off to a respectable 2-2 start,
it is still uncertain what level Pressley is playing at. His two
wins were two impressive shutouts over Cooks Rams, (21-0) and
Womacks Dolphins (14-0). However, he loss convincingly to both
Steve Stewart and Tyrell Conyers.
This week we shall learn more
about where the rookies game is when he takes on the Jags and
Joe Hilton. Hilton is off to a tough start, sitting at 2-3. But
after going though the early season gauntlet of a schedule this
week things can simmer down for Hilton if he can get past Pressley's
Giants.
One thing for sure......Pressley
is not Nunez. At least when the Giants showed up on the schedule
last season, you could relax for just one game. But Pressley has
shown he will be competitive. In just the two short weeks Pressley
has been in the league, he has gotten enough productive play out
of Michael Strahan and Ron Dayne to break into the top 10 in sacks
and rushing respectively. Pressley will be tested by Hilton's
running game. Hilton likes to set up the pass with running Taylor
to the corners on sweeps and tosses, before going deep to McCardell.
If the Giants can contain Taylor early and play the deep ball,
he has a chance to get the W.
Hilton's run defense is respectable.
He only gave up 120 yards to Conyers, compared to the 176 ypg
he has rushed for against everyone else in the league. Pressley
gave up over 200 yards to Conyers, so Hilton just may be licking
his chops in this one.
I like Pressley's balanced attack.
Look for him to go to Jurevicius deep on 3rd down. However, Hilton
plays excellent two deep man and will have Jurevicius blanketed
most of the game. With that in mind, I'll take Hilton, but not
by much......Jags by 2
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St. Louis v. San Francisco***
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Cook is off to his best start
in his three seasons in the PFL. Although he is a modest 3-3,
this is a solid start for Cook who is used to being a cellar dweller
in what ever division he resides. But right now Cook is ahead
of Kevin Fox and this weeks opponent Wayne Allen in the Madden
division and just one game behind
Teddy B! and Dell Barton for the division lead. Allen has struggled
against the upper tier of the league, falling to Tyrell, Brooks
and Dell Barton. If Allen can win his make up game vs. the struggling
Fox, these two will be tied for third place in the division.
Cook's play has been up and down,
and that is the one thing he needs to solidify if he plans to
challenge Barton or Brown for the division lead. He literally
let Brooks slide last week after being on top 21-14 at one point
in the game. He loss miserably to Teddy B! and Leonard Pressley
last week. So this is one game Cook needs to win to forge ahead.
On the other hand, Allen has lost
to his tougher opponents, but he has won the games he needed to,
including a nail biter he pulled off over the feisty Jets squad.
Allen's schedule has been murderous to start the season. Afterng with Brooks, he has had to face Rod, Hilton, Tyrell, Barton,
and Fox. After running that gauntlet, Allen should be happy to
be 3-3 if he spanks Fox.
This game will be all about Cooks
ability to handle Allen's pass rush, and Cooks ability to mix
up the offense. Cook doesn't run the ball nearly enough, therefore
I look for Allen to tee-off on Warner. Defensively look for Allen
to mix his coverages to confuse Cook in the passing game.
Allen offensively will be balanced.
Allen can use his versatile back Barlow to take it outside or
inside. Look for him to test Cook's pursuit early running sweeps
and tosses. Cook should be ready to tangle with Allen's playmaker,
Terrell Owens. The Rams smaller secondary will struggle in one
on one cover vs. the bigger Owens and Stokes. Although Aneas Williams
is one of the best cover corners in the game, it will be a matchup
that favors Allen.
I like Allen's balance, and attacking
defense so I'll take the 49ers by 6
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New Orleans vs. Dallas***
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Dallas is still licking its wounds
from the pasting suffered at the hands of Brooks and the Vikings
last week. The Cowboys are a mediocre 3-3 going into week 7 and
they must not only face the red hot Collins, but Teddy B! who
is off to a solid 4-2 start.
For Dallas this is a game of must.
They must not allow the Saints to get out to an early lead
and tee-off. Collins will look to get the Cowboys out of the running
game, into a passing shoot out. The Cowboys in turn must not
abandon the run game. And finally, they must keep the game
at their pace and not at the Saints pace.
How much of that will happen?
That remains to be seen. The number one priority for the Cowboys
will be to contain the explosive passing offense of the Saints.
Look at the stupid numbers that Collins have put up with Aaron
Brooks. Nearly 2800 yards passing, 39 touchdowns to only 5 ints.
That is asinine. Those numbers would be all pro type season numbers
for most qb's, but for Collins, there is more too come. Those
stats are only after 6 games.
No need for a lot of x's and o's
here. If the Cowboys can slow down the Saints passing game, the
Pokes will keep it close. If Collins goes off early and gets a
big lead....Dallas gets blowed out again. Its that simple.
Cowboys keep it close early, then
Collins switches on the turbo in the second quarter......... Saints
by 9.
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Philadelphia v. San Diego**
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Ah, the good ole days. Think back
to a time when a Kevin Fox - Teddy B matchup would have been the
PFL game of the week. Well, those days are gone, but the rivalry
between the two has not subsided.
No question about it, Kevin Fox
is struggling. He is off to a rough 1-3 start, and he still has
games to make up vs. Joe Hilton and Wayne Allen. Now he must face
a red hot Teddy Brown who is 4-2, tied for first place in the
Madden Division.
What has been the key for Teddy
B's good start? Turnovers! He has minimize the turnovers, especially
in the passing game where Doug Flutie has a 13 td/5 int ratio.
Plus Brown has found a comfort zone in his new offense in San
Diego. After a sluggish preseason, Brown is starting to find his
stride, and Fox is on the opposite side of the spectrum. The Eagles
have yet to find an identity or a comfort level for that matter.
That is why I like Brown in this
game today. No need to talk much X's & O's here. Flutie to
Freddie Jones quite a bit, and LT left and right. That will be
too much for Fox to handle.
Fox will suffer from a lack of
time in the lab so I think I will go with the Chargers here
by 7.
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Miami v. Tampa Bay**
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The Dolphins were off to their
best start since 1997, posting a 2-1 record early and sitting
atop the Shula Division, for at least one week. Since then the
Fins have dropped their last two falling to the Giants 21-0, and
Dallas 28-14. That brings the Dolphins to 2-3 and a date with
the desperate Buccaneers. Kwan Drakes pride has been wounded,
starting out a dismal 0-5, and this week he hopes to have a coming
out party against the Dolphins.
But not so fast grasshopper......the
Fins are playing improved on both sides of the ball, and this
won't be a cakewalk for Drake. The best thing the Fins have going
for them is the defense. Jason Taylor is solid providing a good
pass rush, while Brock Marion and Zach Thomas anchor the defensive
running attack.
Womack should expect Drake to
test his run defense early with sweeps and tosses to the outside.
Don't look for Drake to take it inside unless he using the big
battering ram, Mike Alstott. Drakes game is mostly outside, so
Womack will need to have his run stuffing audibles together to
take away the Bucs outside run.
Where Drake has a slight advantage
is the secondary. Not personnel wise however. The Dolphins are
stocked with two of the best cover corners in the league in Surtain
and Madison. However, the matchup will be Womacks stick control
in the secondary, vs. Drake's on the "chuck" to Keyshaun
Johnson. Advantage: Drake!
This is where Drake wants to go
in long yardage situations. Womack should look to get some help
from the cpu and mix up his Cover 2 (2 man) to get the deep help
from his two outstanding safetys.
Offensive, look for the Fins to
control the clock, and play a rather conservative west coast offense
style. If Womack could put it together for more than one half,
he might steal this one from the Bucs. Womack is my friend and
all.....but I like getting the picks right also, so I'll take the Bucs, by 3.
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Oakland vs. Indianapolis**
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The Raiders are sitting at 3-2,
trying to keep pace with James Brooks and Rod Lucas for the Lombardi
Division lead. The Colts are coming to town at just the right
time. With a make up game vs. the Dolphins, the Raiders should
approach this week with a 4-2 record. Barrow has won the last
3 over Womack. And with the Colts and Bucs on the schedule next,
don't be surprised if Barrow emerges from this weekend with a
6-2 record.
These two guys know each other
well. No need to talk much X's and O's here. They are from the
same training camp, and scrimmage each other frequently. Therefore
Barrow knows that his first priority is to stop the deep pass
to Marvin Harrison.
Zo has the Colts rolling with
a pretty explosive offense, however, he has allowed several chances
to pull off a win slip away, including a 21-0 lead that he lost
to Womack, when the Fins scored 23 unanswered points late in the
second half to get the win.
The key for Barrow is pressure
and 2 deep coverage. Forcing Zo to throw quickly and keeping 2
men on Harrison at all times will be the key. Zo is also missing
the boat in the running game. Edgerrin James is one of the best
backs on the game, but Zo does not use him enough in the running
game.
What Zo can do is take notes from
Barrow, who will run the tosses/sweeps with Garner, and explode
between the tackles with Wheatley. Barrow is the only baller in
THE LEAGUE to have two half backs in the top 10 in rushing.
I look for Barrow to seize the
opportunity to make a run at going 6-2 since he still has 2 games
vs. the Jets and 2 vs. the Vikings. The Colts make a game of it
for a minute, but Barrow finds the way to pull away in the end
and seal the victory. Therefore, I'm taking the Raiders
by 6 1/2.
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Pittsburgh v. Tennessee*
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David Hines is playing much better
ball than his 0-6 record shows. However, that won't help him this
week against the run happy Tyrell Conyers and his Steelers.
The one thing Hines has going
for him is a quick passing game, getting the ball out to the big
TE Franky Wycheck who leads THE LEAGUE in receptions. But Hines
will need much more to overcome this insurmountable objective.
Talking X's and O's is a waste
of time here. Look for Conyers to use this game to pad his stats.
Bettis and Kordell Stewart may go over 100 yards rushing in this
one.
Steelers by15 1/2
Week
8 Games - Swammi's Odds
49ers
@ Colts - 49ers by 10
Chargers @ Cowboys - Chargers by 1
Giants @ Eagles - Giants by 4
Broncos @ Saints - Saints by 13
Lions @ Vikings - Vikings by 2
Dolphins @ Rams - Rams by 3
Jets @ Lions - Lions by 1
Titans @ Jaguars - Jags by 11
Bucs @ Raiders - Raiders by 3 1/2
Ravens @ Bears - Bears by 5
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