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Defense Wins Championships
 
Ricky Williams
 

Ryan Collins Notebook

Steve Stewart Notebook

Swamm's SB 6 Analysis

Swammi grades each team

Chat about the PFL Playoffs

 

The winner of PFL Superbowl VI will be determined by the team that makes sound defensive adjustments. While that may seem like an obvious statement, the fact is that establishing a sound defensive game plan to contain these high octane offenses is certainly easier said than done. Neither team has a sophisticated approach offensively, nor are the defensive schemes very complex. However, they are extremely effective.

The Saints are averaging an outstanding 48.7 points per game scoring offense. Best ever in PFL history, shattering Waymon Gresham's 39 PPG record set in 2000. The Saints defense isn't too shabby either allowing an impressive 18 PPG scoring defense. The Bears are impressive as well scoring just over 40 PPG, but the Bears defense is giving up nearly 28 PPG. The biggest question is can Stewart stretch the Saints defense beyond the 18 PPG average, while maintaining his 28 PPG defensively. No doubt Collins will score, and more than likely he will score more the 28 points. With the championship game set to 10 minute quarters, it is highly unlikely that these two powerhouses will score under 35 points each.

I like Stewart to make this game a close contest, unlike the first game when these two met in the regular season when Collins issued Stewart a 73-35 grade A beat down in week 4. The reason being, Stewart is a lot more comfortable in THE LEAGUE at this point, and is playing with a lot of confidence. In addition Stewart feels he has a read on Collins game.

If that is the case, it is probably because Collins has basically dominated this season with a simple scheme. One, run the post from the single twins set with the TE corner option, or two strike deep out of the shotgun trips formation hitting either Horn, Connell or Ojo.

Stewart plays mostly man coverage, so Collins will look to take advantage of the Bears anytime they are in a cover 1. Collins loves to run the deep streaks or post out of the s-gun trips, trying to get isolation on the Z. Collins vs. man is a matchup that favors the Saints. Stewart should counter with two deep coverage forcing Collins to look for the slot receivers, or either throw it in the double coverage and fight for it. When the Saints go single twins, Collins will usually run the post with the TE corner option, or look for him to run Williams out of the backfield. Stewart knows this, so the question for Collins is will he change up his game just a little more, or will he keep it the same in an attempt to out execute Stewart.

Collins also will have to incorporate some run into his game plan. If not, Stewart will be in a better position to take advantage of the one dimensional attack. If Collins can rush Williams for +65 yards, the Saints should win the game easily. If Williams doesn't rush the ball, I like the Bears to make it close, and perhaps pull the upset.

Speaking of run, the Bears MUST run the football effectively to win. Stewart has said in the past he hates to run....he loves to pass. However, while Collins may play good run defense, he is not patient defensively. Collins will want to force the Bears into quick plays, and a run and gun style offense. This could be a mistake for Stewart. An excellent running game would give the Bears the exact kind of balance they need to pull an upset. Allowing Collins to t-off on Cade McKnown would be a mistake for Stewart. Instead, look for Chicago to mix dives and counters along with sweeps to set up the deep chuck to Robinson or Terrell. Stewart should also take advantage of the excellent 1-2 punch of James Allen and the A-Train, Anthony Thomas. Wearing down the powerful Saints defense could be just would the doctor ordered to dethrone the boastful Collins.

Defensively for Collins, he will play a lot of two deep (two man) vs. Stewart because he knows Stewart loves to throw the chuck. In addition Collins probably is the best in the PFL at defending the chuck. This is why Stewart needs to mix up his offensive game plan early. Collins, should expect Stewart to come with some new offensive wrinkles as well. Stewart has earned a reputation for the gimmick king, and Collins knows he will have everything in the Bears arsenal thrown at him.

Collins will have to be on his toes as well with his special teams. Stewart will be spending plenty of time in the lab this week working on the his special teams, particularly the onside kick. Expect Stewart to run at least three onsides, whether he is ahead or trailing.

Don't expect this game to be the 73-35 laugher witnessed earlier in the season. PFL Superbowl VI will feature two of the better ballers in the PFL if not the best. And while Collins is listed as a 8 point favorite, I would not be surprised at all if by the end of the day, a new champion is crowned. I look for this to be one of the best PFL Superbowls ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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