The
winner of PFL Superbowl VI will be determined by the team that
makes sound defensive adjustments. While that may seem like
an obvious statement, the fact is that establishing a sound
defensive game plan to contain these high octane offenses is
certainly easier said than done. Neither team has a sophisticated
approach offensively, nor are the defensive schemes very complex.
However, they are extremely effective.
The
Saints are averaging an outstanding 48.7 points per game scoring
offense. Best ever in PFL history, shattering Waymon Gresham's
39 PPG record set in 2000. The Saints defense isn't too shabby
either allowing an impressive 18 PPG scoring defense. The Bears
are impressive as well scoring just over 40 PPG, but the Bears
defense is giving up nearly 28 PPG. The biggest question is
can Stewart stretch the Saints defense beyond the 18 PPG average,
while maintaining his 28 PPG defensively. No doubt Collins will
score, and more than likely he will score more the 28 points.
With the championship game set to 10 minute quarters, it is
highly unlikely that these two powerhouses will score under
35 points each.
I
like Stewart to make this game a close contest, unlike the first
game when these two met in the regular season when Collins issued
Stewart a 73-35 grade A beat down in week 4. The reason being,
Stewart is a lot more comfortable in THE LEAGUE at this point,
and is playing with a lot of confidence. In addition Stewart
feels he has a read on Collins game.
If
that is the case, it is probably because Collins has basically
dominated this season with a simple scheme. One, run the post
from the single twins set with the TE corner option, or two
strike deep out of the shotgun trips formation hitting either
Horn, Connell or Ojo.
Stewart
plays mostly man coverage, so Collins will look to take advantage
of the Bears anytime they are in a cover 1. Collins loves to
run the deep streaks or post out of the s-gun trips, trying
to get isolation on the Z. Collins vs. man is a matchup that
favors the Saints. Stewart should counter with two deep coverage
forcing Collins to look for the slot receivers, or either throw
it in the double coverage and fight for it. When the Saints
go single twins, Collins will usually run the post with the
TE corner option, or look for him to run Williams out of the
backfield. Stewart knows this, so the question for Collins is
will he change up his game just a little more, or will he keep
it the same in an attempt to out execute Stewart.
Collins
also will have to incorporate some run into his game plan. If
not, Stewart will be in a better position to take advantage
of the one dimensional attack. If Collins can rush Williams
for +65 yards, the Saints should win the game easily. If Williams
doesn't rush the ball, I like the Bears to make it close, and
perhaps pull the upset.
Speaking
of run, the Bears MUST run the football effectively to win.
Stewart has said in the past he hates to run....he loves to
pass. However, while Collins may play good run defense, he is
not patient defensively. Collins will want to force the Bears
into quick plays, and a run and gun style offense. This could
be a mistake for Stewart. An excellent running game would give
the Bears the exact kind of balance they need to pull an upset.
Allowing Collins to t-off on Cade McKnown would be a mistake
for Stewart. Instead, look for Chicago to mix dives and counters
along with sweeps to set up the deep chuck to Robinson or Terrell.
Stewart should also take advantage of the excellent 1-2 punch
of James Allen and the A-Train, Anthony Thomas. Wearing down
the powerful Saints defense could be just would the doctor ordered
to dethrone the boastful Collins.
Defensively
for Collins, he will play a lot of two deep (two man) vs. Stewart
because he knows Stewart loves to throw the chuck. In addition
Collins probably is the best in the PFL at defending the chuck.
This is why Stewart needs to mix up his offensive game plan
early. Collins, should expect Stewart to come with some new
offensive wrinkles as well. Stewart has earned a reputation
for the gimmick king, and Collins knows he will have everything
in the Bears arsenal thrown at him.
Collins
will have to be on his toes as well with his special teams.
Stewart will be spending plenty of time in the lab this week
working on the his special teams, particularly the onside kick.
Expect Stewart to run at least three onsides, whether he is
ahead or trailing.
Don't
expect this game to be the 73-35 laugher witnessed earlier in
the season. PFL Superbowl VI will feature two of the better
ballers in the PFL if not the best. And while Collins is listed
as a 8 point favorite, I would not be surprised at all if by
the end of the day, a new champion is crowned. I look for this
to be one of the best PFL Superbowls ever.