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The Buffalo-Jacksonville
game seems to be the only game worthy of The Swammi's 5 star
rating. The other games, while they may be somewhat
interesting and somewhat competitive, they don't have the
implications that this headlining tilt can produce. First,
Buffalo is trying to distant themselves from Tampa Bay and
the Jets. Second, Brown knows that if the Bills are to be
considered serious contenders, they must win against the
power teams like Jacksonville. Thus far, one could make a
case for the Bills soft schedule has greatly contributed to
their success. Until last week, they had not defeated a
team over .500. That did not happen until the win over San
Francisco. Brown's two losses came at the hands of over
.500 teams, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Tonight will be a true
test whether or not Buffalo can stand up to the best.
One of the best is
Jacksonville. The Jags have only been tested by Green Bay,
a test in which they failed miserably. Aside from the Green
Bay debacle, Hilton has been on a tear, and his Jags are
ranked #3 in the PFL. Tonight will be a test for him as
well.
I look for this to be a
shoot em up bang bang run and gun event. Who ever has the
ball last will win the game, unless Brown can come up with
the way to stop the Jags passing attack. Certainly Hilton
has proven that he can run the ball with Fred Taylor (785
yards rushing). But the key to Hilton's attack is the
passing game. The first thing Brown must do is take away
Taylor's run lanes. Hilton like to run to the outside
mostly, but he will call a dive or run it off tackle
occasionally. Brown must start by shadowing Taylor every
play. This will cause Hilton to look elsewhere, and that is
exactly what Brown wants. Shutting down the run will force
Hilton to pass, and this is where Brown can be successful.
Hilton likes to get his biggest plays out of the Shotgun 5
wide. It is here where he will go custom and look for
Whitted streaking deep behind the secondary. Brown must
apply pressure on Brunnel to make him throw it before
Whitted can get deep down field. Brown will need to have an
audible for when he sees this formation. In addition,
Hilton will look for Taylor out of this set. Brown must
continue to follow Taylor, especially from this formation
and force him to go deep or to Smith. The key is to force
Hilton to make the wrong read going to McCardell or Barlow,
guys he doesn't normally look for. Those are the two
biggest keys for Brown. Stop the run, and pressure on
Brunnel. For Hilton, he has to deal with the assortment of
custom looks that Brown will throw at him. Look for Brown
to run his patented train-screen, mixing that with the flare
outs and Kevin Williams deep. The Bills can play the type of
defense that will contain the Jags and they can score it,
the question is will they?
Swammi's Keys To The Game:
Bills
- Antwon Smith getting
off on the train-and deep in the 5 wide
- Kevin Williams 100
yards receiving
- Contain Fred Taylor to
40 yards or less rushing
- Blanket Taylor with an
extra defender on every play
- Pressure on
Brunnel
Jags
- Spread the ball
around, look for Kyle Brady
- Fred Taylor 50 yards
or more rushing
- Contain Bill
train-screen
- Double coverage on
Kevin Williams
- No Turnovers
Hilton is one of the few
teams that can turn the ball over more than his opponents
and still win the game. This may not be possible against
the Bills. If Hilton turns it over, look for Brown to
capitalize. Initially I liked the Jags in this one, but
after more thought, I think Brown can win this one. I'm
going out on a limb and take the Bills in an upset
I'll take the Bills
by 3 1/2.
Other Games
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Indianapolis (3-7)@ New England
(3-7)****
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Rarely would two 3-7
teams be considered to have a big game, but in this case
this is a huge game for both teams. Amazingly enough, both
teams still have a chance to make the playoffs in the NFC.
With Dallas holding down the 5th playoff spot at 5-4, the
Colts and Pats will be battling for the 6th and final slot,
with a chance still to catch Dallas. That in itself makes
this a big game because the looser takes two steps backwards
and the winner one step closer to the playoffs. The Colts
topped the Pats earlier in the season. But Smolka has
stepped his game since. His biggest concern should be
stopping "The Edge," Edgerrin James. What Smolka must do is
shadow James all over the field and play the Colts for the
run. Ellis is very effective running the football and he
(Ellis) possesses excellent stick control skills. Look for
Ellis to run mainly to the outside on sweeps and tosses.
That must be the first item on the agenda for Smolka.
Second will be the passing attack. Ellis will pass it in
obvious pass situations. He likes to go to Harrison on the
left side, but he will occasionally hit the big tight end
Dilfer. What Smolka must do offensively is get his running
game off. Dallas ran for 116 yards last week against the
Colts suspect run defense. Kevin Faulk will need to have a
big game. Look for Smolka to also get Ben Coates into the
offense more this game. Smolka has not been pleased with
Coates offensive production thus far.
Swammi's Keys To The Game:
Colts
- Containment on Coates,
stuff the Pats running attack early
- Spread the ball
around, don't go exclusively to James or Harrison
- James big day running
the ball
- Lower turnover
ratio
Pats
- Double coverage on
Harrison
- Shadow Edgerrin
James
- Get Coates off
early
- Big day from Kevin
Faulk - at least 50 yards rushing
- Continue to get the
ball to Glen on the out routes
I think the Pats take this
one on the second time around. I'll take the
Pats by 2 1/2.
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Tampa Bay (6-4) @ St. Louis
(7-3)****
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The Tampa Bay Bucs
are currently on a four game loosing skid. Things don't get
any better this week as they face the red hot Rams. In the
second game they face the Jets. Is it possible for the Bucs
to leave out of this week at .500 at 6-6? That question
itself is cause for desperation in Buccaneer camp. Once the
number one team in the PFL, the Bucs have not only sunk in
the PFL ranking, but their confidence has as well. Drake
needs to get back to the type of balling that got him to be
undefeated. He may not be able to do that since so many
ballers have the blue print on how to play him. The Rams
are ever so changing, which makes it tough to figure them
out. After getting shell shocked two weeks ago by San
Francisco and Green Bay, the Rams went back into the labs
and has emerged more confident that ever. "I will run the
table," the confident one said to The Swammi last week.
That starts with handling the tough Bucs. The first thing
Gresham must do is stuff the Bucs screens and draws. Being a
screen creator, this shouldn't be hard, but stopping the
draws may prove to be a challenge. Drake will need to up the offense more, and get some diversity going. Instead
of screen left, draw, and pass, Drake should pass more on
first down, especially to the big battering ram Alstott.
Even when you have him covered, Alstott still seems to get
3-6 yards after he tramples over the first defender trying
to tackle him. Against Dallas, Drake ran primarily his
custom package. This is becoming a no-no in THE LEAGUE.
Drake needs to mix up his defaults and customs to keep the
defense off balance. Also, the Bucs rarely look for the TE
in the offense. These are things Drake will need to do to
add some spice to the offense and take the pressure off of
Dilfer to pass it 30-40 times a game. The Rams have
attempted to get a better balance of distributing the ball
between the custom and default plays. One thing Gresham has
done is played turnover free football. The Rams did not turn
the ball over in neither of its two games last week. The
result? - Two W's. This is the key against Tampa as well no
mistakes on offense. Fred Taylor rushed for over 100 yards
against the Bucs last week. Marshall Faulk can do the same,
but I don't think Gresham has the patience to let Marshall
get his yards. I think that could be a difference in the
game, but we may not see it.
Swammi's Keys To The Game:
Rams
- Mix custom and default
package - go to double flats on 3rd and short
- Continue to spread the
ball around - get Ricky Proel involved as well
- Shutdown Tampa Bay
Screens-Draws
- Force the Bucs into a
passing contest
- Control the time of
possession
- Go deep against the
Rams custom stunts
Bucs
- Mix zones/man
coverages
- Use more default
plays
- Big Day from Bert
Emmanuel
- Control Clock, don't
get into a scoring fest with Rams
The Bucs showed as I pointed out in
my scouting report
last week. that they have
trouble scoring with offenses that can score. It is their best bet to
keep the game in the 20's. Gresham won't let that happen. So
I'll take the Rams by 4 1/2
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Kansas City(5-4) @ Oakland
(2-8)**
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The Chiefs have slid
back to the sleeper role which is just where Ed Haywood
wants to be. The key is to make it to the playoffs, then
its a whole new season. Nevertheless, the Chiefs can pick
up a much needed win against the Raiders. Kansas City
escaped with a big win last week against Dallas. The
Raiders can have some success against K.C. if they air it
out. Two things Barrow has not done well. One is get the
ball to Nap Kaufman enough. Nap should be getting at least
12-15 touches per game. Instead Barrow has been forcing the
ball and causing turnovers. Another thing the Raiders have
not done well is control the ball. Last season the Raiders
were second to only the Jets in time of possession. This
year, they are 14th. You can't score if you don't have the
ball enough. The Chiefs will employ their usual underneath
attack. Haywood has cleverly disguised his audibles to
confuse the defense with motion and shifting. Barrow can
count on seeing alot of this. Haywood then will feature a
couple of custom plays that will send the wideouts across
the middle, or in the flats on flare routes. These are tough
to cover. Barrow should be ready for this especially on
third down. The Chiefs will want this one more. They need
to keep pace with San Fran and Seattle to stay out of the #6
spot where they would have to face Minnesota or Green Bay.
The Chiefs have lost to both of them. Barrow is not playing
with a sense of urgency. However, a win here can bring him
to just two games behind the Chiefs. However, Oakland's
tough schedule down the stretch looks like a hill to big for
Barrow to climb. I
like the Chiefs in this one by
5.
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Atlanta (2-8) @ San Francisco
(6-4)**
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Careful 49ers, this
is a dangerous game. Cook finally got off the shcnide last
week against Tennessee and Oakland. The Niners are in the
midst of a 3 game loosing streak. If Allen is not careful
the kamikaze Falcons with nothing to loose, can dampen their
hopes for a division crown. Although they sit only one game
out of first place behind the 7-3 Rams, the Niners don't
have room for error. They have to win the games they are
supposed to win and this is one of them. The Niners need to
come out of this week 8-4. Their second game is vs. the
Raiders. In Allen's last four games he must face four
playoff caliber teams in the the Jets, Seattle, Kansas City
and St. Louis. That is a tough stretch drive. That's why
this game is important. The Niners will have to play solid
pass defense, blitz the Falcons alot. Cook won't run it.
Double coverage on the wide outs should contain the Falcons
here. Cook will have more problems with the Niners complex
offense. I like
San Fran again by 7 1/2.
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Seattle(6-4) v. Tennessee
(1-8)*
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Don't let the Titans
1-8 record fool you. Hines ball club plays tough for 24
minutes. His offensive philosophy is improving but his
defense is still struggling. This is good news for Darrin
Taylor who is looking to stay within striking distance of
the Rams. Tonight Hines will need to play his best game
ever to win, and Taylor will need to play one of his worst.
Still with that, the Titan defense is not ready to handle to
explosive Seahawks attack. Hines run defense has been
decent. he should probably play a lot of zone defense
against the Seahawks, and take some chances with blitzes.
The Titans have nothing to loose in this one so Hines should
let it all hang out. Taylor will try to mix it up here with
a little run and pass. Taylor better watch Eddie George.
Hines is very clever in how he uses George. He also likes
to go to Yancy Thigpen. Yancy is tough to double covers
Taylor should be careful. I look for the Titans to get some
points on the board in this one, but they will be outscored
by the Seahawks,
I'll take
the Hawks by 4
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Miami (2-8) @
Minnesota(9-1)*
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The Dolphins just
can't seem to stop letting their opponents off the hook.
Miami lead Buffalo 29-15 in the third quarter last week and
Buffalo reeled of 21 unanswered points. When Teddy Brown was
asked what the difference was on the second half, he
attributed the Bills come from behind win to the Miami
coaching staff not staying with what got them the lead in
the first place. This has become far to common for Antonio
Womack's Fins. Get the lead, or play a great first half,
and loose it in the second. The same thing happened in the
first Minnesota game. The Fins had chances to take the lead
in the game, but squandered it on either bad play calling or
turnovers. Tonight, the Dolphins will have to face the
music. A loss virtually eliminates them from any hopes of
making the playoffs even with a Kansas City debacle. Brooks
won't change much from the first time he played Miami. He
will challenge the Fins to stop the run and he will go deep
at will. Not much to scout in this one. No one really
cares who wins a one star matchup anyway. Vikes easy by 9.
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NY Giants(0-8) @ Green Bay
(9-1)*
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The ethics committee
will watch this one closely to see if Fox runs up the score
intentionally. Not much to say here. Giants don't have a
chance even if he knew every play that Fox was going to run.
Nunez, upset at Gresham's disrespectful mannerisms last
week, may face the same this week. No scouting report here,
Packers by
18.
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ALSO
SEE
Complete Scouting
Report of other Games
How did The Swammi
Pick Em Last Week
Next
Week's Schedule
Official
PFL Calendar
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The Swammi's Viewing Guide For PFL
Games
***** - Game Of
The Week, will be an intense match up, great game
to watch
**** - Highly
competitive game, marquee ballers, should be
exciting
*** -
Good game for recreational viewing,
not as competitive as other games, but should
provide some interesting moments
** - Nothing
else to do, no one else playing, you want to see
someone run up the scores
* - A real
yawner, stuck at Bru's cause you can't get a ride
home, blowout caliber game or no one cares who wins
or loses.
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The Swammi's Record By
Weeks
Week 1/2 - 12-3
Week 3/4 -
11-7
Week 5/6 -
12-4
Week 7/8 - 11-2
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