The
winner of PFL Superbowl VI will be determined by the team
that makes sound defensive adjustments. While that may
seem like an obvious statement, the fact is that establishing
a sound defensive game plan to contain these high octane
offenses is certainly easier said than done. Neither team
has a sophisticated approach offensively, nor are the
defensive schemes very complex. However, they are extremely
effective.
The
Saints are averaging an outstanding 48.7 points per game
scoring offense. Best ever in PFL history, shattering
Waymon Gresham's 39 PPG record set in 2000. The Saints
defense isn't too shabby either allowing an impressive
18 PPG scoring defense. The Bears are impressive as well
scoring just over 40 PPG, but the Bears defense is giving
up nearly 28 PPG. The biggest question is can Stewart
stretch the Saints defense beyond the 18 PPG average,
while maintaining his 28 PPG defensively. No doubt Collins
will score, and more than likely he will score more the
28 points. With the championship game set to 10 minute
quarters, it is highly unlikely that these two powerhouses
will score under 35 points each.
I
like Stewart to make this game a close contest, unlike
the first game when these two met in the regular season
when Collins issued Stewart a 73-35 grade A beat down
in week 4. The reason being, Stewart is a lot more comfortable
in THE LEAGUE at this point, and is playing with a lot
of confidence. In addition Stewart feels he has a read
on Collins game.
If
that is the case, it is probably because Collins has basically
dominated this season with a simple scheme. One, run the
post from the single twins set with the TE corner option,
or two strike deep out of the shotgun trips formation
hitting either Horn, Connell or Ojo.
Stewart
plays mostly man coverage, so Collins will look to take
advantage of the Bears anytime they are in a cover 1.
Collins loves to run the deep streaks or post out of the
s-gun trips, trying to get isolation on the Z. Collins
vs. man is a matchup that favors the Saints. Stewart should
counter with two deep coverage forcing Collins to look
for the slot receivers, or either throw it in the double
coverage and fight for it. When the Saints go single twins,
Collins will usually run the post with the TE corner option,
or look for him to run Williams out of the backfield.
Stewart knows this, so the question for Collins is will
he change up his game just a little more, or will he keep
it the same in an attempt to out execute Stewart.
Collins
also will have to incorporate some run into his game plan.
If not, Stewart will be in a better position to take advantage
of the one dimensional attack. If Collins can rush Williams
for +65 yards, the Saints should win the game easily.
If Williams doesn't rush the ball, I like the Bears to
make it close, and perhaps pull the upset.
Speaking
of run, the Bears MUST run the football effectively to
win. Stewart has said in the past he hates to run....he
loves to pass. However, while Collins may play good run
defense, he is not patient defensively. Collins will want
to force the Bears into quick plays, and a run and gun
style offense. This could be a mistake for Stewart. An
excellent running game would give the Bears the exact
kind of balance they need to pull an upset. Allowing Collins
to t-off on Cade McKnown would be a mistake for Stewart.
Instead, look for Chicago to mix dives and counters along
with sweeps to set up the deep chuck to Robinson or Terrell.
Stewart should also take advantage of the excellent 1-2
punch of James Allen and the A-Train, Anthony Thomas.
Wearing down the powerful Saints defense could be just
would the doctor ordered to dethrone the boastful Collins.
Defensively
for Collins, he will play a lot of two deep (two man)
vs. Stewart because he knows Stewart loves to throw the
chuck. In addition Collins probably is the best in the
PFL at defending the chuck. This is why Stewart needs
to mix up his offensive game plan early. Collins, should
expect Stewart to come with some new offensive wrinkles
as well. Stewart has earned a reputation for the gimmick
king, and Collins knows he will have everything in the
Bears arsenal thrown at him.
Collins
will have to be on his toes as well with his special teams.
Stewart will be spending plenty of time in the lab this
week working on the his special teams, particularly the
onside kick. Expect Stewart to run at least three onsides,
whether he is ahead or trailing.
Don't
expect this game to be the 73-35 laugher witnessed earlier
in the season. PFL Superbowl VI will feature two of the
better ballers in the PFL if not the best. And while Collins
is listed as a 8 point favorite, I would not be surprised
at all if by the end of the day, a new champion is crowned.
I look for this to be one of the best PFL Superbowls ever.
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