Teams that say they don't ever make trades have that prerogative, but they shouldn't stick their head in the sand and not entertain offers to sell their spot to the highest bidder. With three weeks to go, there are already 28 trades from old business that affect this draft, and there will surely be more. The problem is rumors rule the airwaves and the print media. It's time to throw around trade ideas, but it's not time to pull the trigger on trades. It is time for teams to decide what they are looking for in the draft. Can the draft satisfy those needs? How many other teams have the same needs? Are their hidden gems that no one knows like your team does and can you keep it a secret? Let's take a look at a real issue that will very much affect this draft.

A number of teams are making a conversion from the 4-3 defense to the 3-4 scheme. Some teams are just installing a limited package as a changeup, other teams are going for the overhaul. Granted, the Falcons are abandoning the 3-4 for a penetrating 4-3, but a significant number of teams are going the other way. In some ways, the teams making the smaller change are more at risk than the teams going for the conversion. Sure the success Bill Belichick has in New England became required video study for the offseason, but there are a couple of key questions teams have to ask and answer before they can pull this off.

1. Does your team have a big, stout nose tackle that can eat up two blockers on every single play? That is not the same player who can line up in a 4-3 defense and penetrate an "A" gap or loop around an offensive tackle in a three-man line stunt. The Patriots went and got Ted Washington last year, and when they lost him this year, they quickly grabbed Keith Traylor. The Patriots like to have a seasoned veteran play the nose-tackle spot. Remember the Ravens, Texans and Steelers are always looking for 3-4 parts, but now you add the Raiders, Cowboys, Jets and Chargers as teams possibly looking to use some 3-4, and the draft will run out of nose-tackle types quickly. That's good news for the big two-gap players needed to set up the front. Look for Miami's (Fla.) Vince Wilfork, Texas' Marcus Tubbs, Hawaii's Isaac Sopoaga, Oregon's Junior Siavii and Texas Christian's Chad Pugh to go a bit higher than expected because of the number of teams looking at the three-man front defense.
2. Does your team have that "tweener" player who can play defensive end in a four-man front and just as quickly take his hand off the ground and play outside linebacker? The Patriots get great mileage from Willie McGinest in this area. Patriots opponents call him the adjustment player. I'm not talking about someone like Karlos Dansby from Auburn, who will be an excellent prospect as an outside linebacker in the 3-4, but at 235 pounds, he's too light to be a true defensive end. Candidates like Will Smith (Ohio State), Isaac Hilton (Hampton), Uyi Osunde (Connecticut) and Roderick Green (Central Missouri State) are a few that could be that kind of player.
3. Does your team have four starting linebackers on the team or do they have to head to the draft for one more? If so, this may be a bad year. There are only about eight linebackers to figure into the top 100 picks in the draft and not all of them can play in a 3-4 scheme. Remember, the inside linebackers have to be able to line up over the offensive guards and be able to take on 300-pound blockers and shed them. A 6-foot, 230-pound tackling machine like Derrick Brooks would have some trouble if he had to play opposite a guard like Larry Allen. So who fits from this draft? Jonathan Vilma from Miami (Fla.) is a terrific player but is much better suited to play behind a defensive lineman in a four-man front. The Patriots have big linebackers like Ted Johnson, Roman Phifer and Tedy Bruschi who all play around 250 pounds. There are only four legitimate first-day linebackers over 240 pounds.
4. A 3-4 defensive end is more of a tackle than an end, especially on the split-end side. Typically, a 3-4 defensive end lines up on the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle. A 4-3 defensive tackle lines up over the smaller offensive guards where his job is to penetrate into the backfield. Teams studying the draft are looking for very large defensive ends or tall, athletic defensive tackles. Teams that play the 3-4 would rather pay the outside linebackers than the defensive ends, so picking in the middle of the draft is a preference. College defensive ends like Marquis Hill (LSU) fit the bill but he is one of the only ends in the draft with the bulk to do it. Defensive tackles like Randy Starks (Maryland) can do it but he'll be long gone before a 3-4 team will get to him. Deeper in the draft, Tommy Kelly (Mississippi State), Tim Anderson (Ohio State) or Darrell Campbell (Notre Dame) fit the profile.

Vince Wilfork has the size and skill to be a lane-clogging DT that teams hope for.

Coaching the 3-4 package in conjunction with the 4-3 as an additional package takes a special coach who can really teach the nuances and believe in the value of two concepts. Not all of the teams considering this have the experience in teaching both, running both and drafting for both. As one GM said to me, "More than one staff will get in trouble trying to pull this off, and we will make more draft mistakes trying to set them up to do it."

I'm not sure of the failure rate of this experiment around the league, but I am sure it will change opportunities for some draft-eligible players. Be ready for a few surprise picks if your team has announced they are looking at the 3-4 defense.

The Wonderlic score and the back end of the draft

I talked with one of the premier experts on the trends in the NFL. He studies everything the NFL does over time and takes notions and turns them into reliable facts, or he has them thrown out because they just aren't true.

I asked him what the past few years of his research has taught him about the value of the Wonderlic test. The test is used to measure the intelligence of the incoming candidates to the NFL. He had a few interesting comments. The test score doesn't carry the same weight at his team anymore. Years ago, it was very important and it was used in the decision process. He said there's a lot of evidence that the scores aren't valid. The truth is low scores haven't been a great predictor of a lack of success in the league. He quoted an NFL head coach he admires who said that he never met anyone who didn't have the intelligence to play pro football. It's an interesting comment that led me to ask if not the intelligence test, then where? His quick response was to get the assistant coaches to do a better job of coaching.

As for the back end of the draft, Rounds 5, 6, 7 and undrafted free agents, another guy who studies the draft all year long for a club said, "We work harder on the second day than the first because that's how you beat the salary cap." His team expects the last three picks and two undrafted players to make the team every year. During the first offseason after these five make the roster, they shouldn't even count in the salary cap since none of them make the top 51 salaries. I asked him if he has the research done to back up which positions have the best chance of making the team as undrafted players. He made me guess and I said fullback, offensive guard, punter, kicker and safety. He said I was close, very close. He also told me his team has two people assigned to study the second day of the draft. They know very little about the top half of the draft, but they know the second-day values really well and can take over the draft on Sunday. That's a smart idea.